Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts
研究了12个发展中国家宏观经济波动的典型特征，包括国内工业产出与财政、货币、贸易等变量的交叉相关性，以及工业国经济条件的影响，发现发展中国家与工业国既有相似也有差异。
This paper documents the main stylized features of macroeconomic fluctuations for 12 developing countries. Cross-correlations between domestic industrial output and a large group of macroeconomic variables (including fiscal variables, wages, inflation, money, credit, trade, and exchange rates) are presented. Also analyzed are the effects of industrial country economic conditions on output fluctuations in these countries. The robustness of the results is examined using different detrending procedures. The results indicate many similarities between macroeconomic fluctuations in developing and industrial countries (pro cyclical real wages; countercyclical variation in government expenditure) and some important differences (countercyclical variation in the velocity of monetary aggregates).