Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models
在汇率目标区间模型中引入时变的随机贬值风险，使模型能产生汇率与利差之间更符合实际的协动模式，并提出了从数据中估计贬值预期的“漂移调整”方法。
A time-varying stochastic devaluation risk is introduced in a model of exchange rate target zones. The model produces realistic patterns of covariation between exchange rates and interest rate differentials, which previous target zone models have been unable to do. A "drift adjustment" method to estimate devaluation expectations from data is suggested.