Detecting Accounting Fraud in Publicly Traded U.S. Firms Using a Machine Learning Approach
研究用集成学习方法结合原始会计数据构建舞弊预测模型，比传统逻辑回归和支持向量机模型表现更好，适合会计和金融领域研究者参考。
ABSTRACT We develop a state‐of‐the‐art fraud prediction model using a machine learning approach. We demonstrate the value of combining domain knowledge and machine learning methods in model building. We select our model input based on existing accounting theories, but we differ from prior accounting research by using raw accounting numbers rather than financial ratios. We employ one of the most powerful machine learning methods, ensemble learning, rather than the commonly used method of logistic regression. To assess the performance of fraud prediction models, we introduce a new performance evaluation metric commonly used in ranking problems that is more appropriate for the fraud prediction task. Starting with an identical set of theory‐motivated raw accounting numbers, we show that our new fraud prediction model outperforms two benchmark models by a large margin: the Dechow et al. logistic regression model based on financial ratios, and the Cecchini et al. support‐vector‐machine model with a financial kernel that maps raw accounting numbers into a broader set of ratios.