Stock Market Predictability and Industrial Metal Returns
研究发现工业金属（如铜、铝）价格变动能预测股票回报：经济扩张期金属价格上涨预示股市下跌，衰退期则预示上涨，预测力优于传统指标。
Price movements in industrial metals such as copper and aluminum predict stock returns. Increasing industrial metal prices are good news for equity markets in recessions and bad news in expansions. A one-standard-deviation increase in industrial metal returns predicts a price drop of one and a half percent in monthly stock market returns in expansions and an increase of around a half percent during recessions. The predictability is distinct to and compares favorably with that from more established predictors. This paper was accepted by Lauren Cohen, finance.