Significance of Forecast Precision: The Importance of Investors’ Expectations
研究个人投资者对预测精度的期望与实际精度是否一致如何影响其对公司价值的估计，并发现这种影响通过投资者对管理可信度和未来增长的感知来传导。
Abstract I investigate whether the alignment between individual investors’ expectations about forecast precision and actual forecast precision affects their estimates of firm value, and whether this relationship is mediated by individual investors’ perceptions of management credibility and future firm growth. Experimental results confirm that when expected and actual forecast precision align, individual investors estimate higher firm stock prices than when expected and actual forecast precision do not align. I also provide evidence of a mediation path through which the misalignment between expected and actual forecast precision affects individual investors’ perceptions of management credibility, future firm growth, and estimates of firm stock price. My findings help reconcile inconsistencies in prior earnings forecast literature and inform managers and researchers about strategies that lead to higher perceptions of management credibility and firm value.