CARBON LOCK‐IN: THE ROLE OF EXPECTATIONS
研究了预期如何通过创新与资源稀缺性的相互作用影响从化石能源向可再生能源的转型，发现两种可能的均衡取决于预期。
Abstract We argue that expectations about future energy use affect the transition from fossil to renewables because of an interaction between innovation and resource scarcity. This article presents a model of directed technical change to study this interaction. We find that fossil‐saving technical change erodes the incentives to implement renewables. Conversely, the anticipation of a transition to renewables diminishes the incentives to invest in fossil technology. As a result, two equilibria may arise, one with a transition to renewables and with low fossil efficiency and one without renewables and with high fossil efficiency. Expectations determine which equilibrium arises.