INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND BEHAVIOR: DO SURVEY RESPONDENTS ACT ON THEIR BELIEFS?
通过对比消费者在调查中报告的通胀预期与他们在有金钱激励的投资实验中的行为,发现大多数受访者会按预期行事,且行为符合经济理论,而行为无法理性化的受访者通常教育水平、计算能力和金融素养较低。
We compare the inflation expectations reported by consumers in a survey with their behavior in a financially incentivized investment experiment. The survey is found to be informative in the sense that the beliefs reported by the respondents are correlated with their choices in the experiment. More importantly, we find evidence that most respondents act on their inflation expectations showing patterns consistent with economic theory. Respondents whose behavior cannot be rationalized tend to have lower education and lower numeracy and financial literacy. These findings help confirm the relevance of inflation expectations surveys and provide support to the microfoundations of modern macroeconomic models.