Taxpayer Confusion: Evidence from the Child Tax Credit
利用儿童税收抵免在子女年满17岁时取消的年龄断点，研究发现家庭在失去抵免后减少报告工资收入，表明他们将一次性税负增加误认为边际税率上升，揭示了税收复杂性导致的困惑和意外行为反应。
We develop an empirical test for whether households understand or misperceive their marginal tax rate. Our identifying variation comes from the loss of the Child Tax Credit when a child turns 17. Using this age discontinuity, we find that despite this tax liability increase being lump-sum and predictable, households reduce their reported wage income upon discovering they have lost the credit. This finding suggests that households misinterpret at least part of this tax liability change as an increase in their marginal tax rate. This evidence supports the hypothesis that tax complexity can cause confusion and leads to unintended behavioral responses.