Bubbles and Crashes
提出一个模型,说明即使存在理性的套利者,资产泡沫仍可能持续,因为套利者无法临时协调卖出策略,这种同步问题加上择时动机导致泡沫长期存在。
We present a model in which an asset bubble can persist despite the presence of rational arbitrageurs. The resilience of the bubble stems from the inability of arbitrageurs to temporarily coordinate their selling strategies. This synchronization problem together with the individual incentive to time the market results in the persistence of bubbles over a substantial period. Since the derived trading equilibrium is unique, our model rationalizes the existence of bubbles in a strong sense. The model also provides a natural setting in which news events, by enabling synchronization, can have a disproportionate impact relative to their intrinsic informational content.