Environmental Policy, Full-Employment Models, and Employment: A Critical Analysis
本文批判性地评估了充分就业可计算一般均衡模型在分析环境政策对劳动力市场影响时的有效性，比较了三种模型，发现充分就业模型会严重高估碳税带来的就业净变化。
This paper assesses the use of full-employment computable-general equilibrium (CGE) models to evaluate labor-market effects of environmental policy. Specifically, it compares a full-employment model to two alternatives: a Balistreri model that introduces unemployment through an endogenous wage premium and a search-CGE model that uses a search-and-matching friction to introduce unemployment (extending Hafstead and Williams). We find that some key results are robust across the three models, such as the reallocation of labor across sectors in response to a carbon tax, but that small differences for each industry add up to larger differences across models at the aggregate level. Applying a full-time-equivalent assumption to the full-employment model seriously overestimates the economy-wide net change in jobs (by a factor of more than 2.4 for a carbon tax with revenues returned lump sum and by a factor of almost 2.7 when carbon tax revenue reduces payroll taxes) relative to the search-CGE model.