Backward-Looking Interest-Rate Rules, Interest-Rate Smoothing, and Macroeconomic Instability
通过全局分析发现，后顾型利率规则并不能保证均衡的唯一性，在合理参数下可能产生吸引性均衡周期；而利率对滞后利率系数大于1的规则有助于实现全局稳定。
The existing literature on the stabilizing properties of interest-rate feedback rules has stressed the perils of linking interest rates to forecasts of future inflation. Such rules have been found to give rise to aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations. In response to this concern, a growing literature has focused on the stabilizing properties of interest-rate rules whereby the central bank responds to a measure of past inflation. The consensus view that has emerged is that backward-looking rules contribute to protecting the economy from embarking on expectations-driven fluctuations. A common characteristic of the existing studies that arrive at this conclusion is their focus on local analysis. The contribution of this paper is to conduct a more global analysis.We find that backward-looking interestrate feedback rules do not guarantee uniqueness of equilibrium. We present examples in which for plausible parameterizations attracting equilibrium cycles exist. The paper also contributes to the quest for policy rules that guarantee macroeconomic stability globally. Our analysis indicates that policy rules whereby the interest rate is set as a function of the past interest rate and current inflation are likely to ensure global stability, provided that the coefficient on lagged interest rates is greater than unity.