羊群行为能否改善投资决策?

Can herding improve investment decisions?

RAND Journal of Economics · 2011
被引 28
人大 AFT50ABS 4

中文导读

研究发现,在多阶段决策中,如果后续决策者可能模仿先行者,反而会激励先行者提前投入更多信息收集,从而让整体信息更优、决策更好。

Abstract

Existing models show that herding in decisions can cause significant information loss, inferior information aggregation, and impaired decision making. However, we show that in a multistage decision setting with endogenous information production, herding on the initial decision can actually result in superior aggregate information and improved decisions. This is because the possibility of herding by a follower incentivizes the leader to increase its ex ante information production to an extent that it can dominate the information loss from herding. Examples include decisions to enter new markets, fund R&D, and provide early‐stage venture capital.

羊群行为信息生产多阶段决策投资决策