Population Aging and Bank Risk-Taking
利用美国县级数据，研究发现银行在老龄化更严重的地区提高贷款收入比，导致经济下行时不良贷款增加，表明老龄化通过存款流入和投资机会减少两个渠道推高银行风险承担。
Abstract What are the implications of an aging population for financial stability? To examine this question, we exploit geographic variation in aging across U.S. counties. We establish that banks with higher exposure to aging counties increase loan-to-income ratios. Laxer lending standards lead to higher nonperforming loans during downturns, suggesting higher credit risk. Inspecting the mechanism shows that aging drives risk-taking through two contemporaneous channels: deposit inflows due to seniors’ propensity to save in deposits; and depressed local investment opportunities due to seniors’ lower credit demand. Banks thus look for riskier clients, especially in counties where they operate no branches.