Credit supply, house prices, and financial stability
基于中国2003-2019年月度数据，研究了传统银行信贷和影子银行信贷对房价和金融压力的不同影响，发现两者效果部分抵消，且在不同经济周期中作用各异。
Abstract We investigate how both traditional bank credit and shadow banking credit affect housing prices and financial stress based on China's monthly data from January 2003 to December 2019. Our results show that: (a) the effects of bank credit shocks and shadow banking credit shocks on housing prices partly offset each other; (b) increasing bank loans in recessions will increase financial instability, while increasing shadow bank credit in recessions will lower financial instability; (c) commercial bank credit plays a more important role in explaining housing price fluctuations, while shadow banking credit plays a more important role in explaining financial stress fluctuations. Our results are robust to a wide battery of checks and have important policy implications.