The case for Divisia monetary statistics: A Bayesian time-varying approach
本文使用贝叶斯时变系数VAR模型和Divisia指数，发现货币与商业周期的关联比现有文献更紧密，且在经济衰退期（如大衰退）这种关系更为显著，对预测经济活动更准确。
The zero lower bound and quantitative easing policies have rekindled interest in the link between monetary aggregates and the business cycle. This paper argues, on the basis of Bayesian time-varying coefficient VAR models that use Divisia indexes, that money is more closely linked to the business cycle, as well as forecasting economic activity more accurately, than existing literature claims. Moreover, the relationship between money and economic activity is considerably more pronounced during periods of economic distress, such as in the Great Recession.