Reserve Uncertainty and the Supply of International Credit
研究新兴市场国际储备的不确定性如何影响外国投资者提供国际信贷的意愿，并以韩国为例说明其不对称效应：当预期储备充足时波动影响小，但悲观预期下同等波动会大幅减少信贷供给。
This paper shows that uncertainty about an emerging market's international reserves can affect the willingness of foreign investors to supply international credits. We illustrate the relevance of this concern for South Korea. Uncertainty has asymmetric effects. When the expected reserve position of an emerging market is large relative to the potential bailout in bad states of nature, reserve volatility does not matter. However, the same amount of reserve volatility can cause a large reduction in the supply of international credit if the private sector seriously downgrades its priors about repayment possibilities or becomes more pessimistic about the emerging market's reserve position.