Accounting earnings and gross domestic product
研究发现，总体会计盈余增长是名义GDP增长的领先指标，但专业宏观预测者未充分利用这一公开信息，导致预测误差可被会计盈余数据预测。
We document that aggregate accounting earnings growth is an incrementally significant leading indicator of growth in nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Professional macro forecasters, however, do not fully incorporate the predictive content embedded in publicly available accounting earnings data. As a result, future nominal GDP growth forecast errors are predictable based on accounting earnings data that are available to professional macro forecasters in real time.