Reclassification Risk in the Small Group Health Insurance Market
研究了ACA社区评级法规实施前小团体市场中健康保险的重新分类风险，利用大型保险公司的理赔和保费数据，发现健康风险变化对保费变化的传导率为11%，且定价模式与保险公司提供单向定价承诺的“保证可续保”合同一致。
Abstract We evaluate health insurance reclassification risk in the Small Group Market before ACA community rating regulations. We use detailed claims and premiums data from a large insurance company, controlling non parametrically for selection. We find a pass-through of 11% from changes in health risk to changes in premiums, with a stronger equilibrium relationship between the two. The pricing patterns are consistent with the insurer offering “guaranteed renewability” contracts with one-sided pricing commitment. The observed pricing policy adds 55% of the consumer welfare gain from community rating relative to experience rating, with welfare gains limited because of switching across insurance companies.