Does Agricultural Growth Cause Manufacturing Growth?
利用随机天气变化作为工具变量，研究发现农业增长对制造业增长有显著正向影响，为非洲工业化政策提供参考。
The role of agricultural development for industrialization is central to several theories of economic development and policy. However, empirically assessing the impact of agricultural growth on manufacturing growth is challenging because of endogeneity concerns. To address the identification challenge, I use random weather variations to instrument agricultural growth. The instrumental variable estimations show that agricultural growth has a significant positive impact on manufacturing growth. I discuss the empirical implications for efficiency of the manufacturing sector and the role of agriculture in Africa's industrialization.