Unique Option Pricing Measure with neither Dynamic Hedging nor Complete Markets
在简单假设(如看跌-看涨平价)下,推导出欧式期权定价的概率测度均值来自远期价格,不必是风险中性测度,且无需完全市场或动态对冲,证实交易员长期使用的启发式方法更稳健、一致和严谨。
Abstract Proof that under simple assumptions, such as constraints of Put‐Call Parity, the probability measure for the valuation of a European option has the mean derived from the forward price which can, but does not have to be the risk‐neutral one, under any general probability distribution, bypassing the Black‐Scholes‐Merton dynamic hedging argument, and without the requirement of complete markets and other strong assumptions. We confirm that the heuristics used by traders for centuries are both more robust, more consistent, and more rigorous than held in the economics literature. We also show that options can be priced using infinite variance (finite mean) distributions.