Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets
研究了为什么有些房价繁荣后出现萧条而有些没有，构建了一个包含异质性预期和社会动态的模型来解释这一现象。
Some booms in housing prices are followed by busts. Others are not. It is generally \ndi¢ cult to Önd observable fundamentals that are useful for predicting whether a boom \nwill turn into a bust or not. We develop a model consistent with these observations. \nAgents have heterogeneous expectations about long-run fundamentals but change their \nviews because of ìsocial dynamics.îAgents with tighter priors are more likely to convert \nothers to their beliefs. Boom-bust episodes typically occur when skeptical agents \nhappen to be correct. The booms that are not followed by busts typically occur when \noptimistic agents happen to be correct.