The Psychology of Tail Events: Progress and Challenges
总结了近十年来对罕见高影响事件(尾部事件)心理学的进展,重点围绕概率加权概念及其在经济学各领域的应用,并提出了该领域的主要未解问题。
Over the past decade there has been a surge of interest in “tail events,” or rare, high-impact events. In this article, I start by summarizing some recent progress in our understanding of the psychology of tail events. I suggest that much of this progress has centered on the concept of “probability weighting” and, in particular, on applications of this concept in various fields of economics. I then describe some major open questions in this area.