Semiparametric analysis of German East–West migration intentions: facts and theory
利用德国社会经济面板数据，发现传统参数模型无法解释东西部工资差距与迁移倾向的关系，转而采用半参数广义部分线性模型，结果支持等待期权理论等替代迁移理论。
East–West migration in Germany peaked at the beginning of the 1990s although the average wage gap between Eastern and Western Germany continues to average about 25%. We analyse the propensity to migrate using microdata from the German Socioeconomic Panel. Fitting a parametric Generalized Linear Model (GLM) yields non-linear residual behavior. This finding is not compatible with classical Marshallian theory of migration and motivates the semiparametric analysis. We estimate a Generalized Partial Linear Model (GPLM) where some components of the index of explanatory variables enter non-parametrically. We find the estimate of the non-parametric influence in concordance with a number of alternative migration theories, including the recently proposed option-value-of-waiting theory. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.