The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population
指出，在高收入国家生育率低于更替水平的趋势下，全球人口可能长期下降，标准经济模型显示这将导致生活水平停滞而非持续增长，且政策延迟可能使最优方案失效。
In many models, economic growth is driven by people discovering new ideas. These models typically assume either a constant or growing population. However, in high income countries today, fertility is already below its replacement rate: women are having fewer than two children on average. It is a distinct possibility that global population will decline rather than stabilize in the long run. In standard models, this has profound implications: rather than continued exponential growth, living standards stagnate for a population that vanishes. Moreover, even the optimal allocation can get trapped in this outcome if there are delays in implementing optimal policy.