PERMANENT AND TRANSITORY SHOCKS, AND THE UK BUSINESS CYCLE
用VAR技术研究英国数据的商业周期特征，构建包含永久和暂时技术冲击的真实商业周期模型，发现模型能解释数据许多特征，暂时冲击对解释周期波动很重要，但工时数据与理论存在差异。
In this paper the business cycle properties of UK data are investigated using a VAR technique. A Real Business Cycle (RBC) model is formulated. The model includes both permanent and transitory shocks to technology. The business cycle properties of the data and the model are investigated by deriving the expected changes over various forecast horizons from a VAR model. It is found, contrary to evidence in Rotemberg and Woodford (1996), that the model can account for many features of the data and that temporary shocks are pertinent in order to explain the business cycle moments. The main difference between theory and data is present in hours worked. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.