Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises
发现，在发达经济体中，顶层收入不平等加剧和生产率增长缓慢是金融危机的稳健预测指标，且这些趋势的缓慢变化成分能解释大部分关系。
Abstract To understand the determinants of financial crises, previous research focused on developments closely related to financial markets. In contrast, this paper considers changes originating in the real economy as drivers of financial instability. To this end, I assemble a novel data set of long‐run measures of income inequality, productivity, and other macrofinancial indicators for advanced economies. I find that rising top income inequality and low productivity growth are robust predictors of crises, and their slow‐moving trend components largely explain these relations. Moreover, recessions that are preceded by such developments are deeper than recessions without such ex ante trends.