Differential Interpretations and Trading Volume
证明差异化解读是投机交易的重要驱动力，通过分析师对季度盈利公告后年度盈利预测的修正数据来测量差异化解读，发现其在价格小幅变动和高交易量时显著解释交易行为。
This study provides evidence that differential interpretations are an important stimulus for speculative trading. We measure differential interpretations using data on analysts' revisions of forecasts of annual earnings after the announcement of quarterly earnings that are components of those annual earnings numbers. We find two conditions under which differential interpretations play a significant role in explaining trading. First, we present empirical evidence supporting Kandel and Pearson's (1995) argument that trading coincident with small price changes reflects investors' differential interpretations of information. This evidence is important because it is inconsistent with conventional models of trade that assume homogeneous interpretations. Second, we also find that differential interpre? tations explain a significant amount of the trading occurring in a sample where trading volume is higher than the (firm-specific) non-announcement period average. This result is consistent with informed traders acting on their differential interpretations when there is enough liquidity trading to help camouflage their own information-based trades. In sum, the study's results confirm Bachelier's (1900) intuition that differential interpretations are an important stimulus for trading.