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随机效应异方差Probit模型的贝叶斯估计

Bayesian estimation of a random effects heteroscedastic probit model

Econometrics Journal · 2009
被引 13
人大 BABS 3

中文导读

研究了允许异方差的随机效应二元Probit模型的贝叶斯分析,通过模拟和实例表明忽略异方差会导致估计偏误和预测不佳,并采用多种模型比较方法。

Abstract

Bayesian analysis is given of a random effects binary probit model that allows for heteroscedasticity. Real and simulated examples illustrate the approach and show that ignoring heteroscedasticity when it exists may lead to biased estimates and poor prediction. The computation is carried out by an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme that generates the parameters in blocks. We use the Bayes factor, cross‐validation of the predictive density, the deviance information criterion and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves for model comparison.

贝叶斯统计计量经济学Probit模型马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛