成本管理责任阻碍学习避免赢家诅咒

Responsibility for Cost Management Hinders Learning to Avoid the Winner's Curse

Accounting Review · 2006
被引 32
人大 A+FT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

实验发现,当销售人员对成本管理负有责任时,他们更难从重复竞标中学会避免因低估成本而赢下不赚钱订单的“赢家诅咒”。

Abstract

Errors in estimated product costs lead firms to win business that is unprofitable, because firms are more likely to win business when underestimated product costs lead them to bid below actual cost (Cooper et al. 1992; Hilton 2005). Feedback from repeated competitive bidding markets can teach people to bid well above estimated costs to avoid this winner's curse (Kagel 1995; Kagel and Levin 2002). We present experimental evidence that such learning is substantially hampered by sellers' sense of responsibility for the costs. This effect is consistent with psychological evidence that people tend to attribute bad outcomes to environmental factors out of their control, such as cost-estimation errors, and attribute good outcomes to their own skills, such as their ability to choose effective cost-management initiatives (Miller and Ross 1975; Zuckerman 1979). The results suggest that responsibility structures that combine pricing and production decisions may have unexpected drawbacks.

赢者诅咒成本管理责任学习障碍成本估算误差