Online Product Opinions: Incidence, Evaluation, and Evolution
作者研究了消费者为何以及如何在线发布产品评分和评论。他们用实证模型分析了两个决策：是否发布（发生率）和发布什么（评价）。结果发现，已有的正面评分环境会鼓励更多人发布，而负面环境则抑制发布。不同用户反应不同：不常发帖的人容易跟风（从众效应），而活跃用户则倾向于差异化（标新立异）。这些动态会影响在线评分的演变。通过模拟，作者展示了即使初始中位数评分相同，由于核心“活跃分子”持续发布负面意见，评分演变路径可能大相径庭。
Whereas recent research has demonstrated the impact of online product ratings and reviews on product sales, we still have a limited understanding of the individual's decision to contribute these opinions. In this research, we empirically model the individual's decision to provide a product rating and investigate factors that influence this decision. Specifically, we consider how previously posted ratings may affect an individual's posting behavior in terms of whether to contribute (incidence) and what to contribute (evaluation), and we identify selection effects that influence the incidence decision and adjustment effects that influence the evaluation decision. Across individuals, our results show that positive ratings environments increase posting incidence, whereas negative ratings environments discourage posting. Our results also indicate important differences across individuals in how they respond to previously posted ratings, with less frequent posters exhibiting bandwagon behavior and more active customers revealing differentiation behavior. These dynamics affect the evolution of online product opinions. Through simulations, we illustrate how the evolution of posted product opinions is shaped by the underlying customer base and show that customer bases with the same median opinion may evolve in substantially different ways because of the presence of a core group of “activists” posting increasingly negative opinions.