Disease and demographic development: the legacy of the plague
研究了中世纪鼠疫暴发如何影响德国各地区人口转型的时间，发现鼠疫暴露程度越高的地区，人口转型开始得越早，为理解从停滞到增长转型的实证决定因素提供了新见解。
Abstract This paper provides an empirical investigation of the hypothesis that population shocks such as the repeated outbreaks of the plague affected the timing of the demographic transition. The empirical analysis uses disaggregate data from Germany and exploits geographic variation in the exposure to medieval plague shocks. The findings document that areas with greater exposure to plague outbreaks exhibited an earlier onset of the demographic transition. The results are consistent with the predictions of the unified growth literature and provide novel insights into the largely unexplored empirical determinants of the timing of the transition from stagnation to growth.