What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU Member States?
通过估计德国、欧元区其他国家和世界其他地区的三国模型，发现德国储蓄率上升、外部需求增长和劳动力市场改革是经常账户盈余的主要驱动因素，而欧元区利率趋同影响较小。
We estimate a three-country model using data for Germany, the Rest of the Euro Area (REA) and the Rest of the World (ROW) to analyze the determinants of Germany’s current account surplus after the launch of the Euro. The most important factors driving the German surplus were positive shocks to the German saving rate and to ROW demand for German exports, as well as German labor market reforms and other positive German aggregate supply shocks. The convergence of REA interest rates to German rates due to the creation of the Euro had a modest effect on the German trade balance and on German real activity. The key shocks that drove the rise in German net exports tended to worsen the REA trade balance, but only had a weak effect on REA real activity.