Disease and fertility: Evidence from the 1918–19 influenza pandemic in Sweden
利用瑞典行政数据和双重差分法，研究发现1918-19年流感大流行后出现短期婴儿潮，但长期生育率显著下降，且生育减少集中在未婚和低收入群体。
What are the consequences of a severe health shock like an influenza pandemic on fertility? Using rich administrative data and a difference-in-differences approach, we evaluate fertility responses to the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Sweden. We find evidence of a small baby boom following the end of the pandemic, but we show that this effect is second-order compared to a strong long-term negative fertility effect. Within this net fertility decline there are compositional effects: we observe a relative increase in births to married women and to better-off families. Several factors - including disruptions to the marriage market and income effects - contribute to the long-term fertility reduction. The results are consistent with studies that find a positive fertility response following natural disasters, but we show that this effect is short-lived.