Unrecognized States: A Theory of Self-Determination and Foreign Influence
研究了未被承认的国家为何能长期存在，通过动态四参与者模型发现，当有支持国愿意持续投入资源时，这种状态会成为均衡结果；还评估了国际社会可用的选项，指出制裁常导致冲突升级而非解决。
Unrecognized states are characterized by stagnant or crumbling economies and political instability, often serve as havens for illicit trade, and challenge the territorial sovereignty of recognized states. Their persistence is both intellectually puzzling and normatively problematic, but unrecognized statehood can be a remarkably stable outcome, persisting for decades. Our dynamic four-player model reveals that unrecognized statehood emerges as an equilibrium outcome when a patron state is willing and able to persistently invest resources to sustain it. We assess options available to actors in the international community who seek to impose their preferred outcomes in these disputes and find that, although sanctions are the most frequently employed, they can often lead to renewed conflict instead of the intended resolution.