Identifying Conditional Conservatism in Financial Accounting Data: Theory and Evidence
研究了Basu（1997）非对称及时性回归系数作为条件保守主义衡量指标的构造效度，发现该系数在无保守主义时也为正，并受非会计因素影响；提出坏消息与好消息应计方差之差作为替代指标，发现坏消息应计方差显著更高，主要源于存货、长期资产和商誉减值。
ABSTRACT Using a financial reporting and valuation model, we investigate the construct validity of Basu's (1997) asymmetric timeliness (AT) regression coefficient as a measure of conditional conservatism in corporate financial reporting. We predict that the AT coefficient will be positive even in the absence of conditional conservatism, and it will vary with non-accounting factors even if the degree of conditional conservatism is held constant. Our empirical analysis shows that AT coefficient estimates vary in directions predicted by our theory. Specifically, we find that AT coefficient estimates increase with expected returns and asymmetry in the distribution of returns, and decrease with cash flow persistence. Importantly, we identify the spread between the variances of bad news and good news accruals as an alternative measure of conditional conservatism that is free of the effects confounding the AT coefficient. Consistent with a key implication of conditional conservatism, we find that the variance of bad news accruals is significantly higher than the variance of good news accruals primarily due to conditionally conservative accruals related to inventory write-downs, long-term asset write-downs, and goodwill impairments. A series of placebo tests provides additional support for the construct validity of our alternative measure of conditional conservatism. Data Availability: Data are publicly available from the sources indicated in the text.