An Overhaul of Doctrine: The Underpinning of UK Inflation Targeting
分析英国央行官员的言论,发现通胀目标制的确立并非源于政策目标改变,而是源于对IS曲线和菲利普斯曲线参数看法的根本性更新,其中预期通胀项的作用被否定。
The inflation targeting regime prevailing in the UK is not the result of a change in policy maker objectives. Analysis of UK policymakers' statements demonstrates that objectives have been essentially unchanged over five decades. Instead, the crucial underpinning of UK inflation targeting is an overhaul of doctrine. This overhaul involves changes in policymakers' views regarding key IS and Phillips curve parameters. They particularly have involved whether levels terms (of the real interest rate and the output gap) appear in the curves. Contrary to conventional wisdom, changing views on the expected-inflation term in the Phillips curve do not play a role. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2009.