Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics
研究提出资产价格风险飙升可能源于对风险的自我实现信念转变，这种转变可由纯太阳黑子或宏观基本面协调，并影响恐慌程度和后续风险感知。
Recent crises have seen large spikes in asset price risk. We propose an explanation for such panics based on self-fulfilling shifts in beliefs about risk. A negative link between the current level and the future risk of an asset price leads to a circular relationship between the stochastic process of asset price risk and the price itself. Self-fulfilling shifts in perceived risk can be coordinated around a pure sunspot or around a macro fundamental. In a risk panic, a macro fundamental can be a focal point that affects both the magnitude of the panic and subsequent shifts in perceived risk.