The Global Welfare Impact of China: Trade Integration and Technological Change
在多国量化模型中评估中国贸易一体化和技术变革的全球福利影响，发现当中国生产率增长偏向其比较劣势部门时，大多数国家获得更大福利收益，反驳了萨缪尔森的著名猜想。
This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a multi-country quantitative Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin model. We simulate two alternative growth scenarios: a “balanced” one in which China's productivity grows at the same rate in each sector, and an “unbalanced” one in which China's comparative disadvantage sectors catch up disproportionately faster to the world productivity frontier. Contrary to a well-known conjecture (Samuelson 2004), the large majority of countries experience significantly larger welfare gains when China's productivity growth is biased toward its comparative disadvantage sectors. This finding is driven by the inherently multilateral nature of world trade.