Adaptive Learning, Social Security Reform, and Policy Uncertainty
构建了一个适应性学习模型，研究老龄化经济中社会保障政策不确定性的福利效应，发现适应性学习放大了政策不确定性的福利成本，其影响远大于标准理性预期模型。
Abstract I develop an adaptive learning model to study the welfare effects of Social Security policy uncertainty in an aging economy. Agents combine full knowledge of the political process (which Social Security reforms are possible and when they could occur) with limited knowledge about the structure of the economy. The adaptive learning amplifies cyclical dynamics along the transition path to the new steady state. This magnifies the welfare effects of policy uncertainty, compared to a standard rational expectations model. The ex ante consumption equivalent variation that equates the expected utility of consumption (with policy uncertainty) to the utility of expected consumption (across the possible policies without uncertainty) ranges between −0.29% and 0.21% of lifetime consumption in the adaptive learning model compared to −0.012% to −0.018% in the standard model. The welfare cost to future generations is also larger in the adaptive learning model compared to the rational model.