Prediction: The Long and the Short of It
研究短期预测与长期预测的相对重要性，发现即使调整成本、贴现因子和长期不确定性很大，短期预测也可能比长期预测重要得多。
Commentators often lament forecasters’ inability to provide precise predictions of the long-run behavior of complex economic and physical systems. Yet their concerns often conflate the presence of substantial long-run uncertainty with the need for long-run predictability; short-run predictions can partially substitute for long-run predictions if decision-makers can adjust their activities over time. So what is the relative importance of short- and long-run predictability? We study this question in a model of rational dynamic adjustment to a changing environment. Even if adjustment costs, discount factors, and long-run uncertainty are large, short-run predictability can be much more important than long-run predictability.