Do Private Equity Managers Have Superior Information on Public Markets?
利用大量并购和风险基金现金流数据，发现私募股权基金分配能预测其专注行业的回报，经理能预见可比上市公司盈利，但仅在业绩费激励下才在行业高点卖出。
Abstract Using cash flows from a large sample of buyout and venture funds, I show that private equity (PE) distributions predict returns in the industries of funds’ specialization. My tests distinguish timing skill from reactions to market conditions and spillover effects of PE activity. Fund managers foresee comparable public firms’ earnings but sell at the industry peaks only if they have performance fees to harvest. These results have implications for manager selection and improve our understanding of PE fund returns and the role of PE in capital markets.