The dynamics of business cycle connectedness and the decoupling of Asia‐Pacific
研究了亚太经济体商业周期联动性的动态变化，发现联动性随时间增强，马来西亚、泰国和中国等中高收入经济体成为区域增长核心，但并未完全与美国脱钩。
Abstract We assess the dynamic business cycle connectedness of Asia‐Pacific economies and revisit the related issue of the validity of the hypothesis of decoupling from the United States by these economies. We find a host of interesting results: First, the dynamic business cycle connectedness of these economies is increasing over time. Second, a group of upper‐middle income economies, namely, Malaysia and Thailand, and in recent decades, China, have shaped the dynamics of growth in the region, which suggests that the methods we employ in this study can pick‐up the value‐added production chains, for which these economies are a central part. Third, by and large, two blocs of economies have formed over time in terms of closer bilateral connectedness, that is, the ASEAN‐5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand), and a relatively looser formation among the three Northeast Asian economies of China, Japan and Korea. Finally, we find no evidence that the region has completely decoupled from the United States over time. However, one new dimension we discover is that the nature and intensity of the business cycle connectedness of the region vis‐à‐vis the United States tends to vary over time, both on an aggregate and bilateral level. These findings highlight the need to go beyond static analysis and to utilize a dynamic approach for growth cycles within and outside the region.