The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Networks
研究了供应链网络中牛鞭效应的新视角，发现供应商客户基础的变动（关系建立与解除）能平滑其总需求波动，为缓解牛鞭效应提供新思路。
We offer a new network perspective on one of the central topics in operations management—the bullwhip effect (BWE). The topic has both practical and scholarly implications. We start with an observation: the variability of orders placed to suppliers is larger than the variability of sales to customers for most firms, yet the aggregate demand variability felt by suppliers upstream does not amplify commensurably. We hypothesize that changes to the supplier’s customer base can smooth out its aggregate demand. We test the hypothesis with a data set that tracks the evolution of supply relationships over time. We show that the effect of customer base management extends beyond the statistical benefits of aggregation. In particular, both the formation and the dissolution of customer-supplier relationships are associated with the smoothing of the aggregate demand experienced by suppliers. This provides fresh insight into how firms may leverage their customer-supplier relationships to mitigate the impact of the BWE. This paper was accepted by Jay Swaminathan, operations management.