What are the triggers for arrears on debt over a business cycle? Evidence from panel data
利用个人层面季度面板数据，研究了欧元区国家债务拖欠的触发因素，发现低收入和高债务偿还比率增加拖欠概率，且住房贷款与消费贷款在商业周期中的还款行为不同。
Abstract The paper investigates the triggers of arrears on debt in a full recourse euro area country. An extensive individual‐level quarterly panel dataset enables quarterly arrears on debt to be tracked while controlling for individual specific heterogeneity. The estimations show that lower income and higher debt service ratios are associated with a higher probability of arrears, confirming the “ability to pay” hypothesis. The results reveal different debt repayment behaviour for housing and consumer loans over a business cycle. Newly taken housing loans exhibit a lower probability of arrears and the same applies to loans granted during the period of easy credit conditions and high real estate prices, indicating that housing credit boom has not contributed to the rise in arrears on debt. Newly taken consumer loans are related to a higher probability of arrears, suggesting that consumer loans have been used to alleviate financial difficulties.