COVID-19 Severity: A New Approach to Quantifying Global Cases and Deaths
提出一种计量经济学方法，基于SIR流行病模型并纳入漏报，估计61个国家的真实COVID-19病例数和56个国家的真实死亡数，发现漏报程度显著，与现有研究一致。
As the COVID-19 pandemic has progressed, so too has the recognition that cases and deaths have been underreported, perhaps vastly so. Here, we present an econometric strategy to estimate the true number of COVID-19 cases and deaths for 61 and 56 countries, respectively, from 1 January 2020 to 3 November 2020. Specifically, we estimate a 'structural' model based on the SIR epidemiological model extended to incorporate underreporting. The results indicate significant underreporting by magnitudes that align with existing research and conjectures by public health experts. While our approach requires some strong assumptions, these assumptions are very different from the equally strong assumptions required by other approaches addressing underreporting in the assessment of the extent of the pandemic. Thus, we view our approach as a complement to existing methods.