Disagreeing during Deflations
研究通缩期间通胀预测分歧的变化，发现通胀结果与预测分歧呈U型关系，通缩时分歧上升，且信息摩擦无法解释，而预测者异质性观点导致左尾下移，对实体经济有负面影响。
Abstract We examine inflation forecast disagreement during periods of deflation. Using a large cross‐country data set of professional forecasters’ expectations, we show that the relationship between inflation outcomes and forecast disagreement is U‐shaped: disagreement rises with both positive and negative inflation outcomes. We show that information frictions do not explain rising disagreement in deflations and other macroeconomic factors that generally tend to correlate with forecast disagreement cannot fully explain its increase. Instead, our results are consistent with forecasters having heterogeneous views about the inflation process, with those in the left‐tail of the forecast distribution shifting downward during deflations. Econometric evidence indicates that such shifts have adverse consequences for real activity.