Financial distress in the hospitality industry during the Covid-19 disaster
结合银行业压力测试方法和Logit破产模型，利用2008-2013年大衰退数据预测2020年西班牙酒店业因新冠疫情陷入财务困境的企业比例，发现收入下降60%时25%的企业面临困境，下降80%时升至32%，且小企业受影响最大。
We implement the stress test methodology of the banking industry in conjunction with a Logit model of bankruptcy with parameters estimated with data from the Great Recession (2008–2013) to predict which firms would face financial distress among Spanish hospitality firms during 2020 due to the Covid-19 disaster. The predictions from both methods rely on the last accounting data available and on the expected revenue drop for 2020. Both methods coincide to predict that 25% of these firms will face a financial distress situation if revenues drop 60%. This forecast raises up to 32% of firms if revenues drop 80%. Financial distress will affect mainly small firms. Most of the firms in financial distress will face solvency problems, with total assets being insufficient to pay all debts.