The Impact of Non‐tariff Barriers on Trade and Welfare
研究发现，自乌拉圭回合以来，深度贸易协定使商品和服务贸易长期增长超过一半，并对全球福利增长贡献超40%，其中中国、印度和东欧获益最大。
Deep trade agreements (DTAs) are widespread and have taken the world beyond tariff liberalization in goods trade. As the importance of global supply chains and the services sector has increased across the world, shallow tariff reductions have given way to deeper commitments that address non‐tariff barriers and behind‐the‐border barriers to trade. This paper shows that DTA commitments undertaken since the Uruguay Round have increased trade in goods and trade in services by over half in the long term. Taking reduced‐form trade elasticity estimates to a general equilibrium quantitative model, DTAs contributed over 40% to the welfare gains from trade globally and even more for advanced economies. China, India and the Eastern European bloc benefited the most from trade agreements. While most of the gains in China and India came from tariff reductions, the gains to Eastern Europe came largely from deep commitments during its accession to the EU. Applying the DTA estimates to ex ante analysis of Brexit, the losses to the UK from its departure from the deepest trade agreement in the world would not be offset by new deep trade deals with key non‐EU trade partners.