Why Are Firms with Lower Performance More Volatile and Unpredictable? A Vulnerability Explanation of the Bowman Paradox
研究提出低绩效企业因内在脆弱性更易受负面外部冲击影响，导致业绩波动大且难预测，为鲍曼悖论提供新解释，对战略管理和风险分析有用。
This study investigates the negative relationship between firm risk and accounting performance known in the strategy field as the Bowman paradox, which has been generally attributed to differences across firms in their willingness to take risk. Most research to date relies on the behavioral theory of the firm to suggest that underperformers take greater risks to increase their performance to their reference point. As an alternative explanation, we suggest that the Bowman paradox may result from the inherent vulnerability of low performers to negative external shocks. Our panel analysis of 2,681 U.S. firms from 1980 to 2010 confirms that firms with lower performance within their industry are more affected by negative shocks to the economy. The asymmetric vulnerability of low performers to external events makes their overall accounting performance more volatile and difficult to predict by market analysts, even if all firms have a similar attitude toward risk taking and capabilities to manage change. Our vulnerability explanation is also supported by our empirical analysis of the 2008 global financial crisis as a natural experiment. Furthermore, we find strong evidence of a negative risk–return relationship using different methods to control for their endogeneity.