Asymmetric effects of sectoral shifts under low and high uncertainty
利用美国数据，研究了部门转移在低不确定性和高不确定性下对经济表现的非对称影响，发现高不确定性下部门转移对经济活动的抑制作用更强，且该效应并非仅由衰退驱动。
Abstract This paper studies the asymmetric effects of sectoral shifts on economic performance under low and high uncertainty using US data. A sectoral shift is found to induce more depressed economic activity under high uncertainty relative to under low uncertainty. These effects are statistically different across the two uncertainty regimes and are not driven solely by recessions. A tractable two‐sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sectoral shifts and stochastic volatility is able to qualitatively explain these empirical findings.